对老年人的预测更具挑战性：一项关于乐观、悲观与抑郁的纵向研究。
Predictions get tougher in older individuals: a longitudinal study of optimism, pessimism and depression.
作者信息
Armbruster Diana, Pieper Lars, Klotsche Jens, Hoyer Jürgen
机构信息
Institute of Personality and Individual Differences, Technische Universitaet Dresden, 01062, Dresden, Germany,
出版信息
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2015 Jan;50(1):153-63. doi: 10.1007/s00127-014-0959-0. Epub 2014 Sep 9.
PURPOSE
To examine whether optimism/pessimism reliably predicts depression and whether such function is stable also in older age.
METHOD
In a prospective study, we observed a representative sample of n = 4,046 primary care patients over 5 years. The Life Orientation Test (LOT-R, measuring optimism/pessimism) and the Depression-Screening Questionnaire were applied. Medical diagnoses were recorded by the treating physician in a structured medical interview.
RESULTS
Depression could only be predicted by LOT-R scores in younger-age cohorts. In older adults, test stability and predictive accuracy of optimism/pessimism were markedly reduced, while somatic comorbidity gained importance as a predictor.
CONCLUSIONS
Predictive value of screening measures for mental disorders may be specific in older age due to lower trait stability and age-specific psychometric limitations as well as age-related changes in relevant predictors.
目的
探讨乐观/悲观情绪是否能可靠地预测抑郁症，以及这种功能在老年人中是否也稳定。
方法
在一项前瞻性研究中，我们对4046名初级保健患者的代表性样本进行了为期5年的观察。应用了生活取向测试（LOT-R，测量乐观/悲观情绪）和抑郁筛查问卷。治疗医生在结构化的医学访谈中记录医学诊断。
结果
抑郁症只能由年轻队列中的LOT-R分数预测。在老年人中，乐观/悲观情绪的测试稳定性和预测准确性明显降低，而躯体合并症作为预测因素变得更加重要。
结论
由于特质稳定性较低、特定年龄的心理测量局限性以及相关预测因素的年龄相关变化，精神障碍筛查措施的预测价值在老年人中可能具有特异性。
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