Walsh Michael G
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, State University of New York , Downstate, Brooklyn, NY , USA.
PeerJ. 2014 Aug 26;2:e533. doi: 10.7717/peerj.533. eCollection 2014.
Rats are ubiquitous in urban environments and, as established reservoirs for infectious pathogens, present a control priority for public health agencies. New York City (NYC) harbors one of the largest rat populations in the United States, but surprising little study has been undertaken to define rat ecology across varied features of this urban landscape. More importantly, factors that may contribute to increased encounters between rats and humans have rarely been explored. Using city-wide records of rat sightings reported to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, this investigation sought to identify sociodemographic, housing, and physical landscape characteristics that are associated with increased rat sightings across NYC census tracts. A hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson model was used to assess these associations while accounting for spatial heterogeneity in the variance. Closer proximity to both subway lines and recreational public spaces was associated with a higher concentration of rat sightings, as was a greater presence of older housing, vacant housing units, and low education among the population. Moreover, these aspects of the physical and social landscape accurately predicted rat sightings across the city. These findings have identified specific features of the NYC urban environment that may help to provide direct control targets for reducing human-rat encounters.
老鼠在城市环境中无处不在,作为传染病原体的既定宿主,是公共卫生机构的重点防控对象。纽约市拥有美国最大的老鼠种群之一,但令人惊讶的是,针对这座城市景观不同特征下的老鼠生态研究却很少。更重要的是,很少有人探讨可能导致老鼠与人类接触增加的因素。本研究利用向纽约市卫生和精神卫生部门报告的全市老鼠目击记录,试图确定与纽约市人口普查区老鼠目击增加相关的社会人口统计学、住房和自然景观特征。在考虑方差中的空间异质性的同时,使用分层贝叶斯条件自回归泊松模型来评估这些关联。靠近地铁线路和公共休闲空间与更高的老鼠目击集中程度相关,老旧住房、空置住房单元的大量存在以及人口中低教育程度者的较多占比也与之相关。此外,自然和社会景观的这些方面准确地预测了全市的老鼠目击情况。这些发现确定了纽约市城市环境的具体特征,可能有助于为减少人与老鼠的接触提供直接的防控目标。
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