Department of Production Animal Studies, University of Pretoria, South Africa.
Euro Surveill. 2014 Oct 9;19(40):20920. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.40.20920.
We analyse up-to-date epidemiological data of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria as of 1 October 2014 in order to estimate the case fatality rate, the proportion of healthcare workers infected and the transmission tree. We also model the impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic. Results indicate that Nigeria’s quick and forceful implementation of control interventions was determinant in controlling the outbreak rapidly and avoiding a far worse scenario in this country.
我们分析了截至 2014 年 10 月 1 日尼日利亚埃博拉病毒病疫情的最新流行病学数据，以估计病死率、受感染医护人员的比例和传播树。我们还对控制干预措施对疫情规模的影响进行了建模。结果表明，尼日利亚迅速果断地实施控制干预措施对于迅速控制疫情和避免该国出现更糟糕的局面是决定性的。
