Li Jie, Kolivras Korine N, Hong Yili, Duan Yuanyuan, Seukep Sara E, Prisley Stephen P, Campbell James B, Gaines David N
Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia
Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Dec;91(6):1166-72. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0733. Epub 2014 Oct 20.
The emergence of infectious diseases over the past several decades has highlighted the need to better understand epidemics and prepare for the spread of diseases into new areas. As these diseases expand their geographic range, cases are recorded at different geographic locations over time, making the analysis and prediction of this expansion complicated. In this study, we analyze spatial patterns of the disease using a statistical smoothing analysis based on areal (census tract level) count data of Lyme disease cases in Virginia from 1998 to 2011. We also use space and space-time scan statistics to reveal the presence of clusters in the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of Lyme disease. Our results confirm and quantify the continued emergence of Lyme disease to the south and west in states along the eastern coast of the United States. The results also highlight areas where education and surveillance needs are highest.
在过去几十年中，传染病的出现凸显了更好地了解流行病以及为疾病传播到新地区做好准备的必要性。随着这些疾病扩大其地理范围，病例随时间在不同地理位置被记录下来，这使得对这种扩张的分析和预测变得复杂。在本研究中，我们基于弗吉尼亚州1998年至2011年莱姆病病例的区域（普查区层面）计数数据，使用统计平滑分析来分析该疾病的空间模式。我们还使用空间和时空扫描统计来揭示莱姆病空间和时空分布中的聚集情况。我们的结果证实并量化了莱姆病在美国东海岸各州向南和向西的持续出现。结果还突出了教育和监测需求最高的地区。
