Thoma Bryan R, Müller Jörg, Bässler Claus, Georgi Enrico, Osterberg Anja, Schex Susanne, Bottomley Christian, Essbauer Sandra S
Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany.
Viruses. 2014 Oct 23;6(10):3944-67. doi: 10.3390/v6103944.
Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%-7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).
普马拉病毒(PUUV)是引起轻度至中度肾综合征出血热的主要病因,通过棕背䶄(Myodes glareolus)传播。自2004年该地区首次被认定为普马拉病毒流行区以来,德国东南部记录的人类病例累计发病率一直很高。由于该地区以户外休闲活动而闻名,且巴伐利亚森林国家公园(BFNP)位于该地区,记录病例数量的增加令人担忧。为了解种群和环境对棕背䶄普马拉病毒血清阳性率的影响,我们在海拔317米至1420米的23个地点捕获了小型哺乳动物。使用广义线性混合效应模型(GLMEM)来探索棕背䶄普马拉病毒血清阳性率与气候和生物因子之间的关联。我们发现,2008年和2009年普马拉病毒血清阳性率较低(6%-7%),2010年达到29%。普马拉病毒血清阳性率与当地物种多样性和枯木层呈正相关,与年平均温度、年平均太阳辐射和草本层呈负相关。基于这些发现,为国家公园的一个区域绘制了一张用于预测棕背䶄普马拉病毒血清阳性率的示意性风险地图。该地图将有助于国家公园的基础设施规划(如小屋、避难所和步道)。