自回归线性模型在理解气候对三峡水库疟疾媒介动态影响中的应用

Application of Auto-regressive Linear Model in Understanding the Effect of Climate on Malaria Vectors Dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir.

作者信息

Wang Duo Quan, Gu Zheng Cheng, Zheng Xiang, Guo Yun, Tang Lin Hua

机构信息

National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; WHO Collaborating Centre for Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Filariasis; Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai 200025, China.

出版信息

Biomed Environ Sci. 2014 Oct;27(10):811-4. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.117.

DOI:10.3967/bes2014.117

PMID:25341817

Abstract

It is important to understand the dynamics of malaria vectors in implementing malaria control strategies. Six villages were selected from different sections in the Three Gorges Reservoir for exploring the relationship between the climatic factors and its malaria vector density from 1997 to 2007 using the auto-regressive linear model regression method. The result indicated that both temperature and precipitation were better modeled as quadratic rather than linearly related to the density of Anopheles sinensis.

摘要

在实施疟疾控制策略时，了解疟疾病媒的动态变化非常重要。从三峡水库的不同区域选取了六个村庄，采用自回归线性模型回归方法，探究1997年至2007年气候因素与其疟疾病媒密度之间的关系。结果表明，温度和降水量与中华按蚊密度的关系用二次模型比线性模型拟合效果更好。