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证据积累模型的可分析性、特设限制及过度灵活性:对两篇批判性评论的回应

Analyzability, ad hoc restrictions, and excessive flexibility of evidence-accumulation models: reply to two critical commentaries.

作者信息

Jones Matt, Dzhafarov Ehtibar N

机构信息

Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder.

Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University.

出版信息

Psychol Rev. 2014 Oct;121(4):689-95. doi: 10.1037/a0037701.

Abstract

Jones and Dzhafarov (2014) proved the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) and diffusion model (DM) of speeded choice become unfalsifiable if 2 assumptions are removed: that growth rate variability between trials follows a Gaussian distribution and that this distribution is invariant under certain experimental manipulations. The former assumption is purely technical and has never been claimed as a theoretical commitment, and the latter is logically and empirically suspect. Heathcote, Wagenmakers, and Brown (2014) questioned the distinction between theoretical and technical assumptions and argued that only the predictions of the whole model matter. We respond that it is valuable to understand how a model's predictions depend on each of its assumptions to know what is critical to an explanation and to generalize principles across phenomena or domains. Smith, Ratcliff, and McKoon (2014) claimed unfalsifiability of the generalized DM relies on parameterizations with negligible diffusion and proposed a theoretical commitment to simple growth-rate distributions. We respond that a lower bound on diffusion would be a new, ad hoc assumption, and restrictions on growth-rate distributions are only theoretically justified if one supplies a model of what determines growth-rate variability. Finally, we summarize a simulation of the DM that retains the growth-rate invariance assumption, requires the growth-rate distribution to be unimodal, and maintains a contribution of diffusion as large as in past fits of the standard model. The simulation demonstrates mimicry between models with different theoretical assumptions, showing the problems of excess flexibility are not limited to the cases to which Smith et al. objected. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

琼斯和贾法罗夫(2014年)证明,如果去掉两个假设,快速选择的线性弹道累加器(LBA)和扩散模型(DM)就变得无法证伪:一是试验间增长率变异性遵循高斯分布,二是这种分布在某些实验操作下是不变的。前一个假设纯粹是技术性的,从未被视为一种理论承诺,而后一个假设在逻辑和实证上都值得怀疑。希思科特、瓦根梅克斯和布朗(2014年)质疑了理论假设和技术假设之间的区别,并认为只有整个模型的预测才重要。我们回应称,了解模型的预测如何依赖于其每个假设,对于知道解释的关键所在以及跨现象或领域推广原则是有价值的。史密斯、拉特克利夫和麦库恩(2014年)声称广义DM的不可证伪性依赖于扩散可忽略不计的参数化,并提出了对简单增长率分布的理论承诺。我们回应称,扩散的下限将是一个新的特设假设,并且只有在有人提供一个决定增长率变异性的模型时,对增长率分布的限制在理论上才是合理的。最后,我们总结了一个DM的模拟,该模拟保留了增长率不变性假设,要求增长率分布是单峰的,并保持与标准模型过去拟合中一样大的扩散贡献。该模拟展示了具有不同理论假设的模型之间的相似性,表明过度灵活性的问题并不局限于史密斯等人反对的情况。(《心理学文摘数据库记录》(c)2014年美国心理学会,保留所有权利)

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