通过对数线性捕获-再捕获分析估计加拿大商业家禽养殖场的种群规模。
Estimation of the population size of Canadian commercial poultry farms by log-linear capture-recapture analysis.
作者信息
El Allaki Farouk, Christensen Jette, Vallières André, Paré Julie
机构信息
Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec (El Allaki, Vallières, Paré); Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Atlantic Veterinary College, Department of Health Management, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island (Christensen).
出版信息
Can J Vet Res. 2014 Oct;78(4):267-73.
The objective of this study was to estimate the population size of Canadian poultry farms in 3 subpopulations (British Columbia, Ontario, and Other) by poultry category. We used data for 2008 to 2011 from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) Surveillance System (CanNAISS). Log-linear capture-recapture models were applied to estimate the number of commercial chicken and turkey farms. The estimated size of farm populations was validated by comparing sizes to data provided by the Canadian poultry industry in 2007, which were assumed to be complete and exhaustive. Our results showed that the log-linear modelling approach was an appropriate tool to estimate the population size of Canadian commercial chicken and turkey farms. The 2007 farm population size for each poultry category was included in the 95% confidence intervals of the farm population size estimates. Log-linear capture-recapture modelling might be useful for estimating the number of farms using surveillance data when no comprehensive registry exists.
本研究的目的是按家禽类别估算加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚、安大略和其他三个亚群体中家禽养殖场的数量。我们使用了来自加拿大法定禽流感（NAI）监测系统（CanNAISS）2008年至2011年的数据。应用对数线性捕获-再捕获模型来估算商业养鸡场和养火鸡场的数量。通过将估算的养殖场数量规模与2007年加拿大禽类行业提供的数据进行比较来验证估算结果，假定该数据完整且详尽无遗。我们的结果表明，对数线性建模方法是估算加拿大商业养鸡场和养火鸡场数量规模的合适工具。每个家禽类别的2007年养殖场数量规模包含在养殖场数量规模估算的95%置信区间内。当没有全面登记册时，对数线性捕获-再捕获建模可能有助于利用监测数据估算养殖场数量。
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