荷兰疟疾发病率报告不足：捕获-再捕获研究结果
Underreporting of malaria incidence in The Netherlands: results from a capture-recapture study.
作者信息
van Hest N A H, Smit F, Verhave J P
机构信息
Department of Tuberculosis Control, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2002 Oct;129(2):371-7. doi: 10.1017/s0950268802007306.
The aim of this study was to estimate the completeness of notification of malaria by physicians and laboratories in the Netherlands in 1996. We used a capture-recapture (CRC) analysis of three incomplete, partially overlapping registers of malaria cases: a laboratory survey, the Notification Office and the hospital admission registration. The response of the laboratories was 83.2%. In 1996 the laboratories microscopically identified 535 cases of malaria, 330 patients with malaria were admitted to hospital and physicians notified 311 malaria cases. 667 malaria cases were recorded in at least one register. CRC analysis estimated the total number of malaria cases at 774 (95 % CI of 740-821). This implies a completeness of notification of 40.2% for physicians and 69.1% for the laboratories. It can be concluded that laboratory-based notification can considerably increase the number of officially reported malaria cases as compared to notification by physicians. However, possibly one-third of the cases may still go unreported.
本研究的目的是评估1996年荷兰医生和实验室对疟疾通报的完整性。我们对三个不完整且部分重叠的疟疾病例登记册进行了捕获-再捕获（CRC）分析，这三个登记册分别是实验室调查、通报办公室和医院入院登记。实验室的回复率为83.2%。1996年，实验室通过显微镜检查确认了535例疟疾病例，330名疟疾患者入院，医生通报了311例疟疾病例。至少在一个登记册中记录了667例疟疾病例。CRC分析估计疟疾病例总数为774例（95%置信区间为740 - 821）。这意味着医生的通报完整性为40.2%，实验室的通报完整性为69.1%。可以得出结论，与医生通报相比，基于实验室的通报可以显著增加官方报告的疟疾病例数量。然而，可能仍有三分之一的病例未被报告。
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