van Hest N A H, Grant A D, Smit F, Story A, Richardus J H
Division of Infectious Disease Control, Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam Area, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jan;136(1):14-22. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008254. Epub 2007 Mar 12.
Capture-recapture analysis has been used to evaluate infectious disease surveillance. Violation of the underlying assumptions can jeopardize the validity of the capture-recapture estimates and a tool is needed for cross-validation. We re-examined 19 datasets of log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence using three truncated models for incomplete count data as alternative population estimators. The truncated models yield comparable estimates to independent log-linear capture-recapture models and to parsimonious log-linear models when the number of patients is limited, or the ratio between patients registered once and twice is between 0.5 and 1.5. Compared to saturated log-linear models the truncated models produce considerably lower and often more plausible estimates. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture-recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated log-linear models are selected.
捕获-再捕获分析已被用于评估传染病监测。违反基本假设可能会危及捕获-再捕获估计值的有效性，因此需要一种交叉验证工具。我们使用三种针对不完全计数数据的截断模型作为替代总体估计量，重新审视了19个关于传染病发病率的对数线性模型捕获-再捕获研究数据集。当患者数量有限，或者单次登记患者与两次登记患者的比例在0.5至1.5之间时，截断模型产生的估计值与独立对数线性捕获-再捕获模型以及简约对数线性模型相当。与饱和对数线性模型相比，截断模型产生的估计值要低得多，而且往往更合理。我们得出结论，对于估计传染病发病率，独立且简约的三源对数线性捕获-再捕获模型更可取，但截断模型可作为一种启发式工具，用于识别对数线性模型中可能存在的问题，尤其是在选择饱和对数线性模型时。
