El Allaki Farouk, Christensen Jette, Vallières André
Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 3200 Sicotte St., PO Box 5000, St-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada J2S 7C6.
Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, 550 University Ave., Charlottetown, PEI, Canada C1A 4P3.
Prev Vet Med. 2015 Jun 1;120(1):86-95. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.12.004. Epub 2014 Dec 15.
The study objectives were (1) to conduct a systematic review of the performance of capture-recapture methods; (2) to use empirical data to estimate population size in a small-sized population (turkey breeder farms) and a medium-sized population (meat turkey farms) by applying two-source capture-recapture methods (the Lincoln-Petersen, the Chapman, and Chao's lower-bound estimators) and multi-source capture-recapture methods (the log-linear modeling and sample coverage approaches); and (3) to compare the performance of these methods in predicting the true population sizes (2007 data). Our set-up was unique in that we knew the population sizes for turkey breeder farms (99) and meat turkey farms (592) in Canada in 2007, which we applied as our true population sizes, and had surveillance data from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (2008-2012). We defined each calendar year of sampling as a data source. We confirmed that the two-source capture-recapture methods were sensitive to the violation of the local independence assumption. The log-linear modeling and sample coverage approaches yielded estimates that were closer to the true population sizes than were the estimates provided by the two-source methods for both populations. The performance of both multi-source capture-recapture methods depended on the number of data sources analyzed and the size of the population. Simulation studies are recommended to better understand the limits of each multi-source capture-recapture method.
（1）对捕获-再捕获方法的性能进行系统综述；（2）通过应用双源捕获-再捕获方法（林肯-彼得森法、查普曼法和 Chao 下限估计法）和多源捕获-再捕获方法（对数线性建模和样本覆盖法），利用实证数据估计小规模种群（火鸡育种场）和中等规模种群（肉用火鸡养殖场）的种群规模；（3）比较这些方法在预测真实种群规模（2007 年数据）方面的性能。我们的研究设置具有独特性，因为我们知道 2007 年加拿大火鸡育种场（99 个）和肉用火鸡养殖场（592 个）的种群规模，我们将其用作真实种群规模，并拥有来自加拿大法定禽流感监测系统（2008 - 2012 年）的监测数据。我们将每个抽样日历年定义为一个数据源。我们证实双源捕获-再捕获方法对局部独立性假设的违背很敏感。对于这两个种群，对数线性建模和样本覆盖法得出的估计值比双源方法提供的估计值更接近真实种群规模。两种多源捕获-再捕获方法的性能取决于所分析的数据源数量和种群规模。建议进行模拟研究，以更好地理解每种多源捕获-再捕获方法 的局限性。
