Rizzo Alessandro, Frasca Mattia, Porfiri Maurizio
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New York University Polytechnic School of Engineering, Six MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA.
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica, Elettronica e Informatica Università degli Studi di Catania, Viale A. Doria 6, 95126 Catania, Italy.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2014 Oct;90(4):042801. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.90.042801. Epub 2014 Oct 2.
In this work we study the effect of behavioral changes of individuals on the propagation of epidemic diseases. Specifically, we consider a susceptible-infected-susceptible model over a network of contacts that evolves in a time scale that is comparable to the individual disease dynamics. The phenomenon is modeled in the context of activity-driven networks, in which contacts occur on the basis of activity potentials. To offer insight into behavioral strategies targeting both susceptible and infected individuals, we consider two separate behaviors that may emerge in respiratory syndromes and sexually transmitted infections. The first is related to a reduction in the activity of infected individuals due to quarantine or illness. The second is instead associated with a selfish self-protective behavior of susceptible individuals, who tend to reduce contact with the rest of the population on the basis of a risk perception. Numerical and theoretical results suggest that behavioral changes could have a beneficial effect on the disease spreading, by increasing the epidemic threshold and decreasing the steady-state fraction of infected individuals.
在这项工作中，我们研究个体行为变化对流行病传播的影响。具体而言，我们考虑一个易感-感染-易感模型，该模型基于一个接触网络，其演化时间尺度与个体疾病动态相当。此现象在活动驱动网络的背景下建模，其中接触基于活动潜力发生。为深入了解针对易感个体和感染个体的行为策略，我们考虑在呼吸道综合征和性传播感染中可能出现的两种不同行为。第一种与由于隔离或疾病导致感染个体活动减少有关。第二种则与易感个体的自私自我保护行为相关，这些个体基于风险感知倾向于减少与其他人群的接触。数值和理论结果表明，行为变化可能通过提高流行阈值和降低感染个体的稳态比例，对疾病传播产生有益影响。
