Burbano Lombana Daniel Alberto, Zino Lorenzo, Butail Sachit, Caroppo Emanuele, Jiang Zhong-Ping, Rizzo Alessandro, Porfiri Maurizio
Center for Urban Science and Progress, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, 370 Jay Street, Brooklyn, NY 11201 USA.
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Six MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY 11201 USA.
Appl Netw Sci. 2022;7(1):66. doi: 10.1007/s41109-022-00507-6. Epub 2022 Sep 27.
The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain-phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time.
当前新冠疫情引发的紧急情况已在全球夺走数百万人的生命。由于不可避免的突变产生了新的变种,全球出现了多波疫情。现有的用于研究疫情传播的网络工具箱无法轻易适用于对多种共存毒株的研究。在这种背景下,尤其缺乏能够阐明同一毒株或不同毒株再次感染现象的模型,而新冠疫情中我们越来越多地看到了这种现象。在此,我们建立了一个新颖的数学模型来研究两种毒株在一类时间网络上的同时传播。我们在经典的易感-暴露-感染-清除模型的基础上,纳入了用于解释多种毒株感染和再次感染的额外状态。时间网络基于活动驱动网络范式,该范式已成为研究在与网络演化相当的时间尺度上展开的动态过程的首选模型。我们通过平均场方法从随机网络系统的动态中获得分析见解,这使得能够表征不同行为表型(非流行、流行和地方流行)的起始。为了证明该模型的实际用途,我们研究了一种间歇性居家防控策略,即随机要求一部分人口在固定时间段内进行隔离。
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