Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparium and Plasmodium vivax in a micro-ecological setting, Southwest Ethiopia: effects of altitude and proximity to a dam.

BACKGROUND

Refining the spatial and temporal data on malaria transmissions at a defined ecological setting has practical implications for targeted malaria control and enhancing efficient allocation of resources. Spatial and temporal distribution of P. falciparium and P. vivax were explored around the Gilgel Gibe Hydroelectric Dam (GGHD) in southwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A review of confirmed malaria episodes recorded over eight years at primary health services was conducted. Using individual identifiers and village names malaria records were cross-linked to location and individual records of Gilgel Gibe Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data, which had already been geo-referenced. The study setting was categorized in to buffer zones with distance interval of one kilometer. Similarly, altitude of the area was categorized considering 100 meters height intervals. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using Poisson model for the buffer zones and for the altitudinal levels by adjusting for the underlying population density as an offset variable. Yearly temporal variations of all confirmed malaria cases were also evaluated based on the Poisson model using STATA statistical software version 12.

RESULTS

A considerable proportion (45.0%) of the P. falciparium episodes were registered within one kilometer radius of the GGHD. P. falciparium showed increment with distance from the GGHD up to five kilometers and with altitude above 1900 meters while P. vivax exhibited the increase with distance but, decrease with the altitude. Both species showed significantly higher infection among males than females (P <0.01). Temporally, malaria episodes manifested significant increments in the years between 2006/7 to 2009/10 while reduction of the malaria episodes was indicated during 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2010/11 compared to 2003/4 (P <0.01). On average, P. vivax was 52% less than P. falciparium over the time period considered. P. vivax was significantly higher in the years 2004/5 to 2007/8 and 2010/11 (P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial and temporal variations of malaria were observed. The spatial and temporal variations of malaria episodes were also different for the two main malaria species in the area.