Pandey Abhishek, Atkins Katherine E, Medlock Jan, Wenzel Natasha, Townsend Jeffrey P, Childs James E, Nyenswah Tolbert G, Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L, Galvani Alison P
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Science. 2014 Nov 21;346(6212):991-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1260612. Epub 2014 Oct 30.
The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.
当前的埃博拉疫情对西非及其他地区的国家构成了令人担忧的风险。为评估控制策略的有效性,我们构建了一个关于埃博拉在普通社区、医院和葬礼场所之间及内部传播的随机模型,并根据利比里亚的发病率数据进行了校准。我们发现,必须刻不容缓地采取病例隔离、接触者追踪与隔离以及安全葬礼措施相结合的方法,以扭转疫情的蔓延态势。截至9月19日,在现状下,我们的模型预测疫情将继续蔓延,到12月1日预计每日新增病例224例(134至358例),到12月15日为280例(184至441例),到12月31日为348例(249至545例)。