美国获得性免疫缺陷综合征三次方增长的基于风险行为的模型。
Risk behavior-based model of the cubic growth of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.
作者信息
Colgate S A, Stanley E A, Hyman J M, Layne S P, Qualls C
机构信息
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1989 Jun;86(12):4793-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.86.12.4793.
Abstract
The cumulative number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States has grown as the cube of time rather than exponentially. We explain this by interactions involving partner choice and sexual frequency in a risk-behavior model with biased mixing. This leads to a saturation wave of infection moving from high- to low-risk groups. If this description is correct, then the decreasing growth rate of AIDS cases is not due to behavior changes; rather it is due to the intrinsic epidemiology of the disease.
摘要
美国获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）的累计病例数呈时间的立方增长，而非指数增长。我们通过一个存在偏差混合的风险行为模型中涉及伴侣选择和性行为频率的相互作用来解释这一现象。这导致感染的饱和波从高风险群体向低风险群体移动。如果这种描述是正确的，那么艾滋病病例增长率的下降并非由于行为改变；相反，这是由于该疾病内在的流行病学特征。
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