May R M, Anderson R M
Nature. 1987;326(6109):137-42. doi: 10.1038/326137a0.
Simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus help to clarify some of the essential relations between epidemiological factors, such as distributed incubation periods and heterogeneity in sexual activity, and the overall pattern of the AIDS epidemic. They also help to identify what kinds of epidemiological data are needed to make predictions of future trends.
人类免疫缺陷病毒传播动力学的简单数学模型有助于阐明一些流行病学因素之间的基本关系,比如分布潜伏期和性活动的异质性,以及艾滋病流行的总体模式。它们还有助于确定做出未来趋势预测需要哪些种类的流行病学数据。