College of Resources and Environmental Science, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China,
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2015 May;22(10):7954-66. doi: 10.1007/s11356-014-3960-y. Epub 2014 Dec 18.
The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), which is a hydrological and water-quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, was employed to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a typical small watershed in a hilly eastern monsoon region of China. First, a parameter sensitivity analysis was performed to assess how changes in the model parameters affect runoff and nutrient export. Next, the model was calibrated and validated using measured runoff and nutrient concentration data. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E NS ) values of the yearly runoff were 0.87 and 0.69 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. For storms runoff events, the E NS values were 0.93 for the calibration period and 0.47 for the validation period. Antecedent precipitation and soil moisture conditions can affect the simulation accuracy of storm event flow. The E NS values for the total nitrogen (TN) export were 0.58 for the calibration period and 0.51 for the validation period. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the observed and simulated TN concentrations were 0.84 for the calibration period and 0.74 for the validation period. For phosphorus export, the E NS values were 0.89 for the calibration period and 0.88 for the validation period. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the observed and simulated orthophosphate concentrations were 0.96 and 0.94 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The nutrient simulation results are generally satisfactory even though the parameter-lumped HSPF model cannot represent the effects of the spatial pattern of land cover on nutrient export. The model parameters obtained in this study could serve as reference values for applying the model to similar regions. In addition, HSPF can properly describe the characteristics of water quantity and quality processes in this area. After adjustment, calibration, and validation of the parameters, the HSPF model is suitable for hydrological and water-quality simulations in watershed planning and management and for designing best management practices.
水文模拟程序-FORTRAN（HSPF）是美国环境保护署开发的一种水文和水质计算机模型，用于模拟中国东部季风区一个典型小流域的径流量和养分输出。首先，进行了参数敏感性分析，以评估模型参数的变化如何影响径流量和养分输出。接下来，使用实测径流量和养分浓度数据对模型进行校准和验证。年径流量的纳什-苏特克里夫效率（E NS ）值分别为校准期的 0.87 和验证期的 0.69。对于暴雨径流水文事件，校准期的 E NS 值为 0.93，验证期为 0.47。前期降水和土壤湿度条件会影响暴雨事件流量的模拟精度。总氮（TN）输出的 E NS 值分别为校准期的 0.58 和验证期的 0.51。此外，校准期和验证期观测和模拟 TN 浓度的相关系数分别为 0.84 和 0.74。对于磷的输出，校准期的 E NS 值为 0.89，验证期为 0.88。此外，校准期和验证期观测和模拟正磷酸盐浓度的相关系数分别为 0.96 和 0.94。尽管参数集中的 HSPF 模型不能代表土地覆被空间格局对养分输出的影响，但养分模拟结果总体上还是令人满意的。本研究中获得的模型参数可以作为在类似地区应用模型的参考值。此外，HSPF 可以很好地描述该地区水量和水质过程的特征。在调整、校准和验证参数后，HSPF 模型适用于流域规划和管理中的水文和水质模拟，以及最佳管理实践的设计。
