Shiferaw Natnael, Habte Lulit, Waleed Mirza
Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment & Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, 4111, Australia.
Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Center, Sustainable Minerals Institute, University of Queensland, Indooroopilly, QLD, 4068, Australia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Feb;32(7):4124-4136. doi: 10.1007/s11356-025-35946-y. Epub 2025 Jan 25.
Land use changes profoundly affect hydrological processes and water quality at various scales, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of sustainable water resource management. This paper investigates the implications of land use alterations in the Gap-Cheon watershed, analyzing data from 2012 and 2022 and predicting changes up to 2052 using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The study employs the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model to assess water quantity and quality dynamics. Seven land use classes were identified, and their evolution was examined, revealing significant shifts in urban, agricultural, grassland, wetland, and forested areas. The model performance across observed data was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R), percent bias (PBAIS), and mean absolute error (MAE). Results show the dynamic nature of land use changes, highlighting shifts in urbanization, agriculture, and forested areas. Notably, the study explores the consequences of these changes on water quantity and quality, scrutinizing surface runoff, evapotranspiration, stream flow, and nutrient loads. Urban green spaces emerge as key mitigators, regulating runoff and enhancing water absorption. Forests (vegetation) also play a crucial role in maintaining water balance, while wetlands act as natural filters for flood mitigation and water quality improvement. The findings underscore the importance of informed land use planning, recognizing urban green spaces, forests, and wetlands as integral components for sustainable watershed management. As society navigates environmental challenges, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment emphasizing the need for nature-based solutions in land use planning for resilient and balanced ecosystems.
土地利用变化在不同尺度上深刻影响水文过程和水质，因此有必要全面了解可持续水资源管理。本文研究了加川流域土地利用变化的影响，分析了2012年和2022年的数据，并使用未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型预测了到2052年的变化。该研究采用水文模拟程序- FORTRAN（HSPF）模型来评估水量和水质动态。确定了七种土地利用类型，并研究了它们的演变，揭示了城市、农业、草地、湿地和森林地区的显著变化。使用决定系数（R）、偏差百分比（PBAIS）和平均绝对误差（MAE）评估了模型对观测数据的性能。结果显示了土地利用变化的动态性质，突出了城市化、农业和森林地区的变化。值得注意的是，该研究探讨了这些变化对水量和水质的影响，仔细研究了地表径流、蒸散、溪流流量和养分负荷。城市绿地成为关键的缓解因素，调节径流并增强吸水性。森林（植被）在维持水平衡方面也起着关键作用，而湿地则作为减轻洪水和改善水质的天然过滤器。研究结果强调了明智的土地利用规划的重要性，认识到城市绿地、森林和湿地是可持续流域管理的重要组成部分。随着社会应对环境挑战, 这项研究有助于更深入地理解人类活动与自然环境之间的复杂相互作用，强调在土地利用规划中需要基于自然的解决方案，以实现有复原力和平衡的生态系统。
