Amouzou Agbessi, Morris Saul, Moulton Lawrence H, Mukanga David
Data and Analytics, UNICEF, New York, NY, USA.
Children's Investment Fund Foundation, London, UK.
J Glob Health. 2014 Dec;4(2):020411. doi: 10.7189/jogh.04.020411.
To accelerate progress in reducing child mortality, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have adopted and scaled-up integrated community case management (iCCM) programs targeting the three major infectious killers of children under-five. The programs train lay community health workers to assess, classify and treat uncomplicated cases of pneumonia with antibiotics, malaria with antimalarial drugs and diarrhea with Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) and zinc. Although management of these conditions with the respective appropriate drugs has proven efficacious in randomized trials, the effectiveness of large iCCM scale-up programs in reducing child mortality is yet to be demonstrated. This paper reviews recent experience in documenting and attributing changes in under-five mortality to the specific interventions of a variety of iCCM programs.
Eight recent studies have been identified and assessed in terms of design, mortality measurement and results. Impact of the iCCM program on mortality among children age 2-59 months was assessed through a difference in differences approach using random effect Poisson regression.
Designs used by these studies include cluster randomized trials, randomized stepped-wedge and quasi-experimental trials. Child mortality is measured through demographic surveillance or household survey with full birth history conducted at the end of program implementation. Six of the eight studies showed a higher decline in mortality among children 2-59 months in program areas compared to comparison areas, although this acceleration was statistically significant in only one study with a decline of 76% larger in intervention than in comparison areas.
Studies that evaluate large scale iCCM programs and include assessment of mortality impact must ensure an appropriate design. This includes required sample sizes and sufficient number of program and comparison districts that allow adequate inference and attribution of impact. In addition, large-scale program utilization, and a significant increase in coverage of care seeking and treatment of targeted childhood illnesses are preconditions to measurable mortality impact. Those issues need to be addressed before large investments in assessing changes in child mortality is undertaken, or the results of mortality impact evaluation will most likely be inconclusive.
为加快降低儿童死亡率的进程,撒哈拉以南非洲的许多国家已采用并扩大了综合社区病例管理(iCCM)项目,该项目针对五岁以下儿童的三大主要传染性杀手。这些项目培训社区非专业卫生工作者,以评估、分类并用抗生素治疗非复杂性肺炎病例,用抗疟药物治疗疟疾,用口服补液盐(ORS)和锌治疗腹泻。尽管在随机试验中已证明使用相应适当药物治疗这些病症是有效的,但大规模扩大iCCM项目在降低儿童死亡率方面的有效性尚未得到证实。本文回顾了近期在记录五岁以下儿童死亡率变化并将其归因于各种iCCM项目的具体干预措施方面的经验。
已确定并根据设计、死亡率测量和结果对八项近期研究进行了评估。通过使用随机效应泊松回归的差异法评估iCCM项目对2至59个月儿童死亡率的影响。
这些研究采用的设计包括整群随机试验、随机阶梯楔形试验和准实验试验。通过人口监测或在项目实施结束时进行的有完整出生史的家庭调查来测量儿童死亡率。八项研究中的六项显示,与对照地区相比,项目地区2至59个月儿童死亡率的下降幅度更大,尽管只有一项研究中的这种加速在统计学上具有显著性,干预地区的下降幅度比对照地区大76%。
评估大规模iCCM项目并包括死亡率影响评估的研究必须确保设计适当。这包括所需的样本量以及足够数量的项目地区和对照地区,以便进行充分的推断和影响归因。此外,大规模项目的利用以及针对性儿童疾病寻求治疗和治疗覆盖率的显著提高是可测量死亡率影响的前提条件。在对评估儿童死亡率变化进行大量投资之前,需要解决这些问题,否则死亡率影响评估的结果很可能是不确定的。