Ajelli Marco, Merler Stefano, Fumanelli Laura, Bella Antonino, Rizzo Caterina
Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Ann Ist Super Sanita. 2014;50(4):351-6. doi: 10.4415/ANN_14_04_10.
Recent history of measles epidemiology in Italy is characterized by the recurrence of spatially localized epidemics.
In this study we investigate the three major outbreaks occurred in Italy over the period 2010-2011 and estimate the measles transmission potential. The epidemics mainly involved individuals aged 10-28 years and the transmission potential, measured as effective reproduction number - i.e. the number of new infections generated by a primary infector - was estimated to be 1.9-5.9.
Despite such high values, we found that, in all investigated outbreaks, the reproduction number has remained above the epidemic threshold for no more than twelve weeks, suggesting that measles may hardly have the potential to give rise to new nationwide epidemics.
In conclusion, the performed analysis highlights the need of planning additional vaccination programs targeting those age classes currently showing a higher susceptibility to infection, in order not to compromise the elimination goal by 2015.
意大利近期麻疹流行病学史的特点是局部地区疫情反复出现。
在本研究中，我们调查了2010 - 2011年期间在意大利发生的三次主要疫情，并估计麻疹的传播潜力。这些疫情主要涉及10 - 28岁的人群，传播潜力以有效繁殖数衡量，即由一名原发感染者产生的新感染数，估计为1.9 - 5.9。
尽管数值如此之高，但我们发现在所有调查的疫情中，繁殖数超过疫情阈值的时间不超过十二周，这表明麻疹几乎没有引发新的全国性疫情的潜力。
总之，所进行的分析突出表明，需要针对目前显示出较高感染易感性的年龄组规划额外的疫苗接种计划，以免影响到2015年消除麻疹的目标。
