Mitsopoulos Ioannis, Mallinis Giorgos, Arianoutsou Margarita
The Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) Fire Ecology Research Group, c/o Freiburg University, Georges-Köhler-Allee 75, 79110, Freiburg, Germany,
Environ Manage. 2015 Apr;55(4):900-15. doi: 10.1007/s00267-014-0432-6. Epub 2014 Dec 24.
The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.
本研究的目的是评估希腊典型地中海式城乡交错带（WUI）的空间野火风险，以及三种不同燃烧条件情景对以下四个主要野火风险组成部分的潜在影响：燃烧概率、条件火焰长度、火灾规模和源汇比。我们使用FlamMap和ArcFuels工具应用最小旅行时间火灾模拟算法，以表征野火风险对一系列不同燃烧情景的潜在响应。我们通过测量代表性天然燃料复合体中的现场燃料参数，创建了研究区域的特定地点燃料模型，并使用大规模自然彩色正射影像的照片判读程序确定了研究区域内不同燃料类型和住宅结构的空间范围。结果包括模拟的空间明确火灾风险组成部分以及野火风险暴露分析和预期净值变化。使用Tukey显著性检验获得情景之间模拟输出的统计显著性差异。本研究结果为野火风险潜力短期预测的决策支持系统提供了有价值的信息，并为希腊典型WUI地区的野火管理提供了参考。
