Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT 59807.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Jan 14;111(2):746-51. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315088111. Epub 2013 Dec 16.
Recent fire seasons in the western United States are some of the most damaging and costly on record. Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface on the Colorado Front Range, resulting in thousands of homes burned and civilian fatalities, although devastating, are not without historical reference. These fires are consistent with the characteristics of large, damaging, interface fires that threaten communities across much of the western United States. Wildfires are inevitable, but the destruction of homes, ecosystems, and lives is not. We propose the principles of risk analysis to provide land management agencies, first responders, and affected communities who face the inevitability of wildfires the ability to reduce the potential for loss. Overcoming perceptions of wildland-urban interface fire disasters as a wildfire control problem rather than a home ignition problem, determined by home ignition conditions, will reduce home loss.
近年来，美国西部的火灾季是有记录以来最具破坏性和代价最高的火灾季之一。科罗拉多 Front Range 的城乡交错带发生的野火导致数千所房屋被烧毁和平民死亡，尽管造成了毁灭性的影响，但并非没有历史先例。这些火灾与威胁美国西部大部分地区社区的大型、破坏性的界面火灾的特征一致。野火是不可避免的，但房屋、生态系统和生命的破坏并非不可避免。我们提出风险分析原则，为面临野火必然性的土地管理机构、第一响应者和受影响社区提供减少潜在损失的能力。克服将城乡交错带火灾灾害视为野火控制问题而不是家庭点火问题的观念，通过家庭点火条件来确定，将减少房屋损失。
