文字还是数字？全科医疗中概率表述的评估
Words or numbers? The evaluation of probability expressions in general practice.
作者信息
O'Brien B J
出版信息
J R Coll Gen Pract. 1989 Mar;39(320):98-100.
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 words or phrases which denote frequency or likelihood. The hypothetical context of the exercise was that of communicating to patients the probability of a side-effect (headache) arising from an unspecified prescription medicine. Median phrase ratings ranged from 'never' at 0% to 'certain' at 95% with a 50% rating given to the phrase 'reasonable chance'. Despite relatively large variance in ratings between respondents, the median ratings of a number of phrases were similar, and some identical, to other studies from different medical professionals. Although the clinical context in which a given expression of probability is used may affect its meaning, the results are encouraging and suggest that phrases denoting likelihood might be systematically codified to enhance communication between doctor and patient. To move towards this objective more research is needed to evaluate how patients interpret expressions of probability, and the relative effectiveness of different modes of communicating likelihood.
56名全科医生被要求以百分比为尺度，对23个表示频率或可能性的单词或短语进行评分。该练习的假设情境是向患者传达某种未指明的处方药产生副作用（头痛）的概率。短语评分中位数范围从表示“从不”的0%到表示“肯定”的95%，“合理机会”这一短语的评分为50%。尽管受访者之间的评分存在相对较大的差异，但一些短语的中位数评分与来自不同医学专业人员的其他研究相似，有些甚至相同。虽然使用特定概率表述的临床情境可能会影响其含义，但结果令人鼓舞，表明表示可能性的短语可能会被系统地编纂，以加强医患之间的沟通。为了朝着这一目标前进，需要更多的研究来评估患者如何理解概率表述，以及传达可能性的不同方式的相对有效性。
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