Cohn L D, Schydlower M, Foley J, Copeland R L
Dept of Psychology, University of Texas at El Paso 79968, USA.
Pediatrics. 1995 May;95(5):713-6.
To determine if differences exist between adolescents and physicians in their numerical translation of 13 commonly used probability expressions (eg, possibly, might).
Cross-sectional.
Adolescent medicine and pediatric orthopedic outpatient units.
150 adolescents and 51 pediatricians, pediatric orthopedic surgeons, and nurses.
Numerical ratings of the degree of certainty implied by 13 probability expressions (eg, possibly, probably).
Adolescents were significantly more likely than physicians to display comprehension errors, reversing or equating the meaning of terms such as probably/possibly and likely/possibly. Numerical expressions of uncertainty (eg, 30% chance) elicited less variability in ratings than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, possibly).
Physicians should avoid using probability expressions such as probably, possibly, and likely when communicating health risks to children and adolescents. Numerical expressions of uncertainty may be more effective for conveying the likelihood of an illness than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, probably).
确定青少年与医生在对13个常用概率表述（如“可能”“也许”）进行数字转换时是否存在差异。
横断面研究。
青少年医学及小儿骨科门诊科室。
150名青少年以及51名儿科医生、小儿骨科外科医生和护士。
对13个概率表述（如“可能”“大概”）所隐含的确定程度进行数字评分。
青少年比医生更易出现理解错误，颠倒或等同“大概/可能”以及“很可能/可能”等术语的含义。不确定性的数字表述（如“30%的几率”）在评分中引发的变异性小于不确定性的词汇表述（如“可能”）。
医生在向儿童和青少年传达健康风险时应避免使用“大概”“可能”“很可能”等概率表述。不确定性的数字表述在传达疾病可能性方面可能比不确定性的词汇表述（如“大概”）更有效。
