Kullberg Cecilia, Fransson Thord, Hedlund Johanna, Jonzén Niclas, Langvall Ola, Nilsson Johan, Bolmgren Kjell
Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden,
Ambio. 2015 Jan;44 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S69-77. doi: 10.1007/s13280-014-0600-1.
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.
在最近几十年里，许多候鸟物种都提前了春季抵达时间，这很可能是气候变化所致。然而，关于近期全球变暖之前这段时期候鸟物候的研究却很匮乏。我们分析了14种候鸟春季抵达瑞典南部和中部的历史数据集（1873 - 1917年）。此外，我们利用历史观测数据与现今观测数据（1984 - 2013年）之间的相对差异，来评估纬度和迁徙策略对随时间变化的抵达日期的影响。与长距离迁徙鸟类相比，短距离迁徙鸟类的春季物候变化更大。有趣的是，结果进一步表明，气候变化对瑞典南部短距离迁徙鸟类物候的影响比对中部的影响更大。结果表明，短距离迁徙鸟类抵达瑞典南部的时间比预期早得多，这反映了越冬地位置的变化，因此，将迁徙物候与越冬范围的变化联系了起来。
