ACRI-ST, 260 route du Pin Montard, BP 234, 06904 Sophia Antipolis cedex, France.
GIEFS (Groupe International d'Etudes des Forêts Sud-européennes) - 60, Avenue des Hespérides, 06300 Nice, France.
Environ Res. 2015 Feb;137:235-45. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.12.025. Epub 2015 Jan 8.
The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change.
预计与地球上大多数其他地区相比，地中海地区将受到更强烈的正在发生的气候变化的影响。东南法国可以作为评估全球变化对森林影响的案例研究。基于非参数统计检验，分析了两种松树物种（地中海松和欧洲赤松）的气候参数（温度、相对湿度、降雨量、总辐射）和森林响应指标（树冠凋落、变色和可见叶臭氧伤害）。在过去的 20 年中，趋势分析表明，沿海地区的气候明显变得更热、更干燥，内陆地区略为多雨。在当前的气候变化背景下，在偏远地区发现地面臭氧（O3）减少，可见叶 O3 伤害减少，而树冠状况恶化可能是由于气候更干燥、更温暖。显然，如果在过去 20 年法国东南部气候变暖的情况下，已经检测到这种气候和生态变化，那么可以预期，随着预测到 2100 年的温度变化（+1.95-4.59°C），许多树种将受到更多的影响。气候变化预计会减少臭氧前体排放控制的好处，导致更高的臭氧吸收。然而，更干燥和温暖的气候应该会导致土壤干旱，从而降低臭氧吸收。这两种作用以相反的方式共同作用，可能会减轻臭氧对森林的有害影响。制定协调的减排战略对于减少气候变化和臭氧污染是有用的。气候变化将给森林管理带来额外的挑战，对社会经济和生物多样性产生重大影响。然而，制定未来可持续和适应性的森林管理战略有潜力降低森林物种对气候变化的脆弱性。
