Kwak Dae Hee
University of Michigan, 1402 Washington Heights #2118, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA.
J Gambl Stud. 2016 Mar;32(1):107-23. doi: 10.1007/s10899-015-9520-7.
Over 100 million people are estimated to take part in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship bracket contests. However, relatively little is known about consumer behavior in skill-based gaming situations (e.g., sports betting). In two studies, we investigated the overestimation phenomenon in the "March Madness" context. In Study 1 (N = 81), we found that individuals who were allowed to make their own predictions were significantly more optimistic about their performance than individuals who did not make their own selections. In Study 2 (N = 197), all subjects participated in a mock competitive bracket pool. In line with the illusion of control theory, results showed that higher self-ratings of probability of winning significantly increased maximum willingness to wager but did not improve actual performance. Lastly, perceptions of high probability of winning significantly contributed to consumers' enjoyment and willingness to participate in a bracket pool in the future.
据估计，超过1亿人参与美国大学体育总会（NCAA）男子篮球锦标赛的冠军赛赛程预测比赛。然而，对于基于技能的游戏情境（如体育博彩）中的消费者行为，我们了解得相对较少。在两项研究中，我们调查了“疯狂三月”背景下的高估现象。在研究1（N = 81）中，我们发现，被允许自行做出预测的个体比未自行选择的个体对自己的表现明显更为乐观。在研究2（N = 197）中，所有受试者都参与了一场模拟的竞争性赛程预测比赛。与控制错觉理论一致，结果表明，更高的获胜概率自我评分显著提高了最大投注意愿，但并未改善实际表现。最后，对高获胜概率的认知显著提升了消费者的愉悦感以及未来参与赛程预测比赛的意愿。
