Matute Helena, Blanco Fernando
Universidad de Deusto, Bilbao, Spain,
Psychon Bull Rev. 2014 Aug;21(4):1087-93. doi: 10.3758/s13423-014-0584-7.
The illusion of control is the belief that our behavior produces an effect that is actually independent from it. This illusion is often at the core of superstitious and pseudoscientific thinking. Although recent research has proposed several evidence-based strategies that can be used to reduce the illusion, the majority of these experiments have involved positive illusions-that is, those in which the potential outcomes are desired (e.g., recovery from illness or earning points). By contrast, many real-life superstitions and pseudosciences are tied to negative illusions-that is, those in which the potential consequences are undesired. Examples are walking under a ladder, breaking a mirror, or sitting in row 13, all of which are supposed to generate bad luck. Thus, the question is whether the available evidence on how to reduce positive illusions would also apply to situations in which the outcomes are undesired. We conducted an experiment in which participants were exposed to undesired outcomes that occurred independently of their behavior. One strategy that has been shown to reduce positive illusions consists of warning people that the outcomes might have alternative causes, other than the participants' actions, and telling them that the best they can do to find out whether an alternative cause is at work is to act on only about 50% of the trials. When we gave our participants this information in an experiment in which the outcomes were undesired, their illusion was enhanced rather than reduced, contrary to what happens when the outcome is desired. This suggests that the strategies that reduce positive illusions may work in just the opposite way when the outcome is undesired.
控制错觉是指人们相信自己的行为会产生一种实际上与之无关的效果。这种错觉往往是迷信和伪科学思维的核心。尽管最近的研究提出了几种基于证据的策略,可用于减少这种错觉,但这些实验大多涉及积极错觉,即那些潜在结果是人们所期望的情况(例如,疾病康复或得分)。相比之下,许多现实生活中的迷信和伪科学与消极错觉有关,即那些潜在后果是人们不希望发生的情况。例如,从梯子下走过、打破镜子或坐在13排,所有这些都被认为会带来厄运。因此,问题在于,关于如何减少积极错觉的现有证据是否也适用于结果不被期望的情况。我们进行了一项实验,让参与者接触与其行为无关的不期望出现的结果。一种已被证明能减少积极错觉的策略是,警告人们结果可能有除参与者行为之外的其他原因,并告诉他们要弄清楚是否存在其他原因在起作用,最好的做法是在大约50%的试验中采取行动。当我们在结果不被期望的实验中向参与者提供这些信息时,他们的错觉非但没有减少,反而增强了,这与结果是人们所期望的情况时的结果相反。这表明,当结果不被期望时,减少积极错觉的策略可能会起到相反的作用。