Global establishment risk of economically important fruit fly species (Tephritidae).

The global invasion of Tephritidae (fruit flies) attracts a great deal of attention in the field of plant quarantine and invasion biology because of their economic importance. Predicting which one in hundreds of potential invasive fruit fly species is most likely to establish in a region presents a significant challenge, but can be facilitated using a self organising map (SOM), which is able to analyse species associations to rank large numbers of species simultaneously with an index of establishment. A global presence/absence dataset including 180 economically significant fruit fly species in 118 countries was analysed using a SOM. We compare and contrast ranked lists from six countries selected from each continent, and also show that those countries geographically close were clustered together by the SOM analysis because they have similar fruit fly assemblages. These closely clustered countries therefore represent greater threats to each other as sources of invasive fruit fly species. Finally, we indicate how this SOM method could be utilized as an initial screen to support prioritizing fruit fly species for further research into their potential to invade a region.