Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus National Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1048, USA.
Nat Commun. 2015 Jan 20;6:5991. doi: 10.1038/ncomms6991.
It has long been a goal of farm policy to manage production in such a way that expensive off-farm inputs and negative environmental consequences can be simultaneously minimized. One generalized philosophy that has gained currency in recent years is autonomous pest control, in which complex ecological interactions are encouraged to maintain the ecosystem in a state of permanence with the pest below economic thresholds. Early experience with biological control was hampered significantly by the inherent instability of many of the control agents, suggesting that pursuit of the autonomous strategy could be difficult. Here we show that combining two unstable two-dimensional systems (pest-predator and pest-pathogen) produces a stable three-dimensional system (pest-predator-pathogen) that is robust to perturbations in initial conditions. Contrary to expectations, the inclusion of negative interactions, which are arguably a necessary consequence of increased complexity, can stabilize unstable conditions and rescue biological control of simpler, ineffective pest management systems.
长期以来,农业政策的目标一直是通过管理生产,使昂贵的场外投入和负面的环境后果同时最小化。近年来,一种普遍的理念是自主害虫防治,即鼓励复杂的生态相互作用来维持生态系统的永久性,使害虫处于经济阈值以下。生物防治的早期经验受到许多控制剂固有不稳定性的严重阻碍,这表明追求自主策略可能很困难。在这里,我们表明,将两个不稳定的二维系统(害虫-捕食者和害虫-病原体)组合起来,可以产生一个稳定的三维系统(害虫-捕食者-病原体),对初始条件的扰动具有很强的鲁棒性。与预期相反,包括负相互作用(可以说是增加复杂性的必然结果)可以稳定不稳定的情况,并拯救简单、无效的害虫管理系统的生物控制。