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老挝口蹄疫在村庄和国家层面的经济影响

Financial Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease at Village and National Levels in Lao PDR.

作者信息

Nampanya S, Khounsy S, Abila R, Young J R, Bush R D, Windsor P A

机构信息

Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia.

Department of Livestock and Fisheries, Regional Office, Luang Prabang, Lao PDR.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2016 Oct;63(5):e403-11. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12319. Epub 2015 Jan 21.

Abstract

To assist policies on Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) control in Laos and the Mekong region, the financial impact of recent outbreaks at village and national levels was examined. Village-level impacts were derived from recent research on financial losses due to FMD per smallholder household and number of households with FMD-affected livestock in the village. National-level impacts of FMD were determined from examination of 2011-2013 FMD reported to the Lao Department of Livestock and Fisheries (DLF), with the 2011 epidemic reported separately due to the large number and size of outbreaks of FMD in that year. Estimates of the national financial impact of FMD were based on (i) total FMD financial losses at the village level and (ii) the costs of FMD responses and other related costs at the DLF, provincial and district levels where FMD was reported, but excluding the costs of revenue forgone. A Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to account for likelihood of FMD over- and under-reporting. Foot-and-mouth disease was recorded in four provinces of Phonsaly, Bokeo, Xayyabouli and Champasak in three consecutive years from 2011 to 2013. However, the FMD epidemic in 2011 was more widely distributed and involved 414 villages in 14 provinces, with thousands of cases of morbidity in cattle and buffalo and some mortalities. The estimated financial losses due to FMD in 2011 were USD 30 881(±23 176) at the village level and USD 13 512 291 at the national level based on the number of villages with FMD outbreaks reported. However, when the likelihood of FMD under-reporting was accounted for, the estimated financial losses at the national level could potentially increase to USD 102 094 464 (±52 147 261), being almost 12% of the estimated farm gate value of the national large ruminant herd. These findings confirm that FMD causes substantial financial impacts in villages and to the national economy of Laos, providing justification for sustained investments in FMD control programmes.

摘要

为协助老挝及湄公河地区口蹄疫防控政策的制定,研究了近期疫情在村庄和国家层面造成的经济影响。村庄层面的影响源自近期关于每户小农户因口蹄疫造成的经济损失以及村庄内有口蹄疫感染牲畜的农户数量的研究。口蹄疫在国家层面的影响是通过审查2011年至2013年向老挝畜牧与渔业部(DLF)报告的口蹄疫情况确定的,2011年的疫情因当年口蹄疫疫情数量众多且规模较大而单独报告。口蹄疫对国家经济影响的估计基于:(i)村庄层面口蹄疫造成的总经济损失,以及(ii)DLF、报告口蹄疫的省级和地区级对口蹄疫应对措施及其他相关成本,但不包括放弃的收入成本。采用蒙特卡洛模拟来考虑口蹄疫报告过多和过少的可能性。2011年至2013年连续三年,丰沙里、博胶、沙耶武里和占巴塞四个省份记录到口蹄疫疫情。然而,2011年的口蹄疫疫情分布更广,涉及14个省份的414个村庄,牛和水牛出现数千例发病情况并有一些死亡病例。根据报告有口蹄疫疫情的村庄数量,2011年口蹄疫造成的估计经济损失在村庄层面为30881美元(±23176美元),在国家层面为13512291美元。然而,当考虑到口蹄疫报告不足的可能性时,国家层面的估计经济损失可能增至102094464美元(±52147261美元),几乎占国家大反刍动物群估计农场门价值的12%。这些研究结果证实,口蹄疫给老挝的村庄和国民经济造成了重大经济影响,为持续投资口蹄疫防控计划提供了依据。

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