Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Br J Surg. 2015 Feb;102(3):148-58. doi: 10.1002/bjs.9736.
Prediction models are developed to aid healthcare providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision-making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed.
An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, healthcare professionals and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors.
The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study.
The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. A complete checklist is available at http://www.tripod-statement.org.
预测模型旨在帮助医疗保健提供者估计特定疾病或病症存在的概率或风险（诊断模型）或特定事件将来发生的概率（预后模型），以辅助他们的决策制定。然而，大量证据表明，预测模型研究报告的质量很差。只有全面、清晰地报告预测模型各个方面的信息，才能充分评估预测模型的偏倚风险和潜在有用性。建立多变量个体预后或诊断预测模型透明报告（TRIPOD）倡议制定了一套报告用于开发、验证或更新预测模型的研究的建议，无论其目的是诊断还是预后。本文介绍了 TRIPOD 声明的制定过程。
根据文献综述创建了一份基于广泛的项目清单，经过基于网络的调查和 2011 年 6 月为期 3 天的会议修订后，将其进行了缩减，会议参与者包括方法学家、医疗保健专业人员和期刊编辑。该清单在指导小组的多次会议和与更广泛的 TRIPOD 贡献者的电子邮件讨论中进行了细化。
由此产生的 TRIPOD 声明是一份 22 项必备清单，旨在透明报告预测模型研究。
TRIPOD 声明旨在提高预测模型研究报告的透明度，无论使用何种研究方法。TRIPOD 声明最好与 TRIPOD 解释和说明文件一起使用。完整的清单可在 http://www.tripod-statement.org 上获得。
