PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands.
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Feb 1;231:446-456. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.048. Epub 2018 Oct 25.
This paper presents global estimates of nutrient discharge from households to surface water based on the relationships between income and human emissions represented by protein consumption, degree of connection to sewerage systems, presence of wastewater treatment plants and their level of nutrient removal efficiency. These relationships were used to construct scenarios for discharge of nutrients with waste water based on the five Shared Socio-economic Pathways for the period from 1970 to 2050. The number of inhabitants connected to a sewerage system will increase by 2-4 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Despite the enhanced nutrient removal by wastewater treatment, which will increase by 10%-40% between 2010 and 2050, nutrient discharge to surface water will increase in all scenarios by 10%-70% (from 10.4 Tg nitrogen (N) in 2010 to 13.5-17.9 Tg N by 2050 and from 1.5 Tg phosphorus (P) in 2010 to 1.6-2.4 Tg P by 2050). In most developing countries, nutrient discharge to surface water will strongly increase over the next decades, and in developed countries it will stabilize or decrease slightly. A global decrease in nutrient discharge is possible only when wastewater treatment plants are extended with at least tertiary treatment in developing countries and with advanced treatment in the developed countries. In future urban areas that will be developed over the 2010-2050 period, options for recycling can be included in wastewater management systems. A separate collection system for urine can yield 15 Tg N yr and 1.2 Tg P yr, which can be made available for recycling in agriculture. The SDG 6.3 about safely treated waste water by 2030 will be reached in the developed countries in 2030. In the developing countries, the goal will be reached by 2050 only under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5.
本文基于蛋白质消费所代表的收入与人类排放之间的关系，以及与污水系统的连接程度、废水处理厂的存在及其营养物质去除效率，对全球家庭向地表水排放营养物质的情况进行了估算。这些关系被用于根据五个共享社会经济路径，构建 1970 年至 2050 年期间基于污水排放的营养物质排放情景。到 2050 年，与污水系统相连的居民人数将增加 20 亿至 40 亿。尽管废水处理的营养物质去除率将提高 10%至 40%，但在所有情景下，到 2050 年，向地表水排放的营养物质仍将增加 10%至 70%（从 2010 年的 10.4 亿吨氮（N）增加到 13.5 至 17.9 亿吨 N，以及从 2010 年的 1.5 亿吨磷（P）增加到 1.6 至 2.4 亿吨 P）。在大多数发展中国家，未来几十年，向地表水排放的营养物质将大幅增加，而在发达国家，排放将略有稳定或减少。只有在发展中国家广泛采用三级处理，以及在发达国家采用高级处理，扩大废水处理厂，才有可能实现全球营养物质排放的减少。在未来的城市地区，即 2010 年至 2050 年期间开发的地区，可以在废水管理系统中纳入回收选择。单独的尿液收集系统每年可产生 15 亿吨氮和 1.2 亿吨磷，可用于农业回收。到 2030 年，发达国家将实现 2030 年安全处理废水的可持续发展目标 6.3。在发展中国家，只有在 SSP1、SSP2 和 SSP5 情景下，到 2050 年才能实现这一目标。
