Epidemiological study of chronic kidney disease progression: a large-scale population-based cohort study.

The prognostic information about CKD progression, particularly for GFR categories 1 and 2, is still limited. This cohort was therefore conducted to determine the CKD progression using a competing risk approach. We conducted a retrospective cohort study linking community health screening with hospitals and death registry data in a province of Thailand, from 1997 to 2011. A competing risk model was applied by treating death as a competing risk factor to estimate 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of kidney failure and median time for CKD progression from lower to higher GFR category. There were 17,074 non-diabetic and 15,032 diabetic CKD subjects. Diabetic subjects progressed more rapidly through GFR categories with the median times for CKD progression from GFR categories G1 to G2, G2 to G3a, G3a to G3b, G3b to G4, and G4 to G5 of 4.4, 6.1, 4.9, 6.3, and 9.0 years, respectively. Non-diabetic subjects took longer to progress with the corresponding median time of 9.4, 14.0, 11.0, 13.8, and >14.3 years. After adjusting for confounders, diabetic subjects were 49% (cause-specific hazard ratio ((c)HR) = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.37, 1.62) more likely to develop kidney failure than non-diabetic subjects. Albuminuria categories A3 and A2 were, respectively, 3.40 (95% CI: 3.07, 3.76) and 1.71 (95% CI: 1.53, 1.92) higher risk of kidney failure when compared to A1. For each albumin category, death rate increased as albuminuria increased particularly in diabetic subjects, which was approximately 2 times higher in A3 compared to A1. Considering GFR category, it gradually increased from G1 to G4 and sharply increased from G4 to G5 in both non-diabetic and diabetic subjects. This study has quantified CKD progression in an Asian population within ordinary practice. Diabetic subjects progress through GFR and albuminuria categories and reach kidney failure about twice as rapidly as non-diabetic subjects.