Morters Michelle K, McKinley Trevelyan J, Restif Olivier, Conlan Andrew J K, Cleaveland Sarah, Hampson Katie, Whay Helen R, Damriyasa I Made, Wood James L N
Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK.
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow Glasgow, UK.
J Appl Ecol. 2014 Aug;51(4):1096-1106. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12279. Epub 2014 Jun 10.
Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine-mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. We report the results of a 3-year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies-endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free-roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free-roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. . These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine-mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes.
了解家犬种群的人口统计学特征对于有效控制疾病，尤其是犬传狂犬病至关重要。规划有效的种群管理也需要人口统计学数据。然而，尚无研究全面评估人口统计学过程（即出生、死亡和迁移）对犬种群规模或密度变化的贡献，也未确定调节这些过程的因素，包括人为因素。我们报告了一项为期3年的家犬队列研究结果，这是首个生成这些人口统计学特征随时间变化详细数据的研究。该研究在印度尼西亚巴厘岛和南非约翰内斯堡的狂犬病流行地区各选取了两个社区进行，那里的大多数犬只都是自由放养的。这四个社区均未接受过地方当局或动物福利组织的任何犬种群管理干预措施。在整个研究期间，对四个社区中所有已识别的犬只进行了个体监测。我们观察到在研究期间，要么没有种群增长，要么种群规模逐渐下降。没有明确证据表明种群规模是通过环境资源限制来调节的。相反，几乎所有已识别的犬只都由其主人拥有并定期喂食，这与由人类需求调节的种群规模一致。最后，相当一部分犬只来自种群外部，完全是通过人们转移犬只，而非本地出生。这些发现表明，先前报道的犬种群增长并非普遍现象，并挑战了广泛持有的自由放养犬只无人拥有且构成封闭种群的观点。这些观察结果对疾病和种群控制具有广泛影响。通过主人为犬只进行疫苗接种和评估的可及性以及人们对犬只（其中一些感染）的转移，将决定疾病控制策略的可行选项。人为因素对种群动态的影响也将影响通过年度疫苗接种运动控制狂犬病以及通过扑杀或绝育进行种群控制的可行性。犬与人之间的复杂关系在犬传狂犬病的传播和控制中至关重要。为了进行有效管理，在制定疾病和种群控制计划时必须考虑人为因素。
