Thichumpa Weerakorn, Wiratsudakul Anuwat, Lawpoolsri Saranath, Limpanont Yanin, Thanapongtharm Weerapong, Smith Lauren M, Maneewong Sarawut, Pan-Ngum Wirichada
Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025 Jul 3;19(7):e0013202. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013202. eCollection 2025 Jul.
A mathematical model was constructed to investigate dog population dynamics and explore the impact of population management and rabies prevention. We aimed to evaluate cost-effective sterilization and vaccination strategies for dog population control and rabies prevention in Thailand. The developed compartmental model was calibrated with dog population data from Lopburi province (between 2019 and 2022) and simulated five sterilization scenarios. These measures included a combined 80% coverage of the rabies vaccine and 20% coverage of a sterilization program among non-specific dog types. Our findings indicated that sterilization programs targeting female indoor, outdoor, and stray dogs may prove to be the most effective in reducing the total dog population above 50% over a five-year period, surpassing the efficacy of the current intervention. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the two female dog sterilization strategies were cost-saving compared to the current practice, as the total costs of sterilization and vaccination decreased over time due to the reduction in the dog population. In conclusion, targeting female dog sterilization could reduce the population and was cost-saving compared to current strategies. Further data to inform dog population demographic and available resources including manpower, rabies vaccine, sterilization toolkits, and related materials will be required to fully explore intervention accessibility and feasibility within the context of rabies prevention and control in Thailand.
构建了一个数学模型来研究犬类种群动态,并探讨种群管理和狂犬病预防的影响。我们旨在评估泰国犬类种群控制和狂犬病预防的具有成本效益的绝育和疫苗接种策略。使用来自华富里府(2019年至2022年期间)的犬类种群数据对所开发的 compartmental 模型进行了校准,并模拟了五种绝育方案。这些措施包括对非特定犬类类型联合实施80%的狂犬病疫苗接种覆盖率和20%的绝育计划覆盖率。我们的研究结果表明,针对雌性室内犬、室外犬和流浪犬的绝育计划可能在五年内将犬类总数减少50%以上,证明是最有效的,超过了当前干预措施的效果。此外,成本效益分析表明,与当前做法相比,两种雌性犬绝育策略具有成本节约效果,因为由于犬类种群减少,绝育和疫苗接种的总成本随时间下降。总之,与当前策略相比,针对雌性犬绝育可以减少种群数量并节省成本。需要进一步的数据来了解犬类种群的人口统计学情况以及包括人力、狂犬病疫苗、绝育工具包和相关材料在内的可用资源,以在泰国狂犬病预防和控制的背景下充分探索干预措施的可及性和可行性。