Diamond J M
Department of Physiology, University of California Medical School, Los Angeles 90024-1751.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Nov 6;325(1228):469-76; discussion 476-7. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1989.0100.
This paper re-evaluates whether we are really at the start of a mass extinction caused by humans. I consider the present, past and future of human-caused extinctions. As regards the present, estimates of extinction rates based on Red Data Books underestimate real values by a large factor, because the books evaluate only those species that have attracted specific attention and searches. Especially in tropical areas with few resident biologists, many poorly known species go extinct without having been the object of specific attention, and others disappear even before being described. A 'green list' of species known to be secure is needed to complement 'red books' of species known to be extinct. As regards the past, it is now clear that the first arrival of humans at any oceanic island with no previous human inhabitants has always precipitated a mass extinction in the island biota. Well-known victims include New Zealand's moas, Madagascar's giant lemurs, and scores of bird species on Hawaii and other tropical Pacific islands. Late-Pleistocene or Holocene extinctions of large mammals after the first arrival of humans in North America, South America and Australia may also have been caused by humans. Hence human-caused mass extinction is not a hypothesis for the future but an event that has been underway for thousands of years. As regards the future, consideration of the main mechanisms of human-caused extinctions (overhunting, effects of introduced species, habitat destruction, and secondary ripple effects) indicates that the rate of extinction is accelerating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
本文重新评估了我们是否真的处于由人类导致的大规模物种灭绝的开端。我考量了人为导致物种灭绝的现状、过去和未来。就现状而言，基于《红色数据手册》对灭绝率的估计大大低估了实际值，因为这些手册仅评估那些引起了特别关注并进行了搜寻的物种。尤其是在常驻生物学家较少的热带地区，许多鲜为人知的物种在未受到特别关注的情况下就灭绝了，还有一些甚至在被描述之前就消失了。需要一份已知安全物种的“绿色名录”来补充已知灭绝物种的“红色名录”。就过去而言，现在很清楚的是，人类首次抵达任何此前无人居住的海洋岛屿，总会在该岛屿生物群中引发大规模灭绝。著名的受害者包括新西兰的恐鸟、马达加斯加的巨型狐猴，以及夏威夷和其他热带太平洋岛屿上的数十种鸟类。人类首次抵达北美、南美和澳大利亚后，晚更新世或全新世大型哺乳动物的灭绝也可能是由人类造成的。因此，人为导致的大规模物种灭绝并非未来才会出现的一种假设，而是已经持续了数千年的一个事件。就未来而言，对人为导致物种灭绝的主要机制（过度捕猎、外来物种的影响、栖息地破坏以及次生连锁反应）的考量表明，灭绝速度正在加快。（摘要截选至250词）
