Ferreira Daniele Bittencourt, Mattos Inês Echenique
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil,
Cien Saude Colet. 2015 Mar;20(3):895-903. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232015203.07982014.
A descriptive time series study was conducted in order to analyze the mortality rates for breast cancer in two age brackets (< 60 years and ≥ 60 years), in areas of the state of Rio de Janeiro (inland, metropolitan area, capital and state). The data source was the Mortality Information System. Mortality rates were analyzed for four-year periods, between 1996 and 2011, and the ratios between the incidences for the two age brackets in each area. The trend in annual mortality rates was analyzed with the Joinpoint program and polynomial regression models. The ratios between the incidences observed were 7-8 times higher in women aged 60 years or older. Joinpoint analyses indicated a linear decline in mortality rates in the state and the capital for the whole population and for women aged 60 and over in the same areas. The polynomial regression models allowed the observation of periods of increasing and decreasing rates and a tendency to stabilization at the end of the period. Despite the declining trend, the magnitude of mortality from breast cancer is still high among women aged 60 and older, and it is important to investigate associated factors in this population group.
为分析里约热内卢州（内陆、大都市区、首府和该州其他地区）两个年龄组（<60岁和≥60岁）的乳腺癌死亡率，开展了一项描述性时间序列研究。数据来源为死亡信息系统。分析了1996年至2011年期间四年的死亡率，以及各地区两个年龄组发病率之间的比率。使用Joinpoint程序和多项式回归模型分析了年死亡率趋势。60岁及以上女性的观察发病率之比高出7至8倍。Joinpoint分析表明，该州和首府的全人群以及相同地区60岁及以上女性的死亡率呈线性下降。多项式回归模型能够观察到发病率上升和下降的时期以及该时期末趋于稳定的趋势。尽管呈下降趋势，但60岁及以上女性的乳腺癌死亡率仍然很高，因此调查该人群组的相关因素很重要。
