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巴西女性乳腺癌死亡率的时间趋势及其与社会不平等的相关性:生态时间序列研究

Temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality in Brazil and correlations with social inequalities: ecological time-series study.

作者信息

Gonzaga Carolina Maciel Reis, Freitas-Junior Ruffo, Curado Maria-Paula, Sousa Ana-Luiza Lima, Souza-Neto José-Augusto, Souza Marta Rovery

机构信息

Health Sciences, Federal University of Goiás (UFG), Goiânia, Brazil.

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Federal University of Goiás (UFG), Goiânia, Brazil.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2015 Feb 7;15:96. doi: 10.1186/s12889-015-1445-7.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common cause of death from cancer in women in less developed regions. Therefore, the objective of this study was to provide data on the temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality between 1990 and 2011 and to evaluate its association with the social inequalities present in Brazil.

METHODS

Breast cancer mortality data and estimates for the resident population were obtained from the Brazilian National Health Service database for the 1990-2011 period. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated (20-39, 40-49, 50-69 and ≥70 years) by direct standardization using the 1960 standard world population. Trends were modeled using joinpoint regression model and linear regression. The Social Exclusion Index and the Human Development Index were used to classify the 27 Brazilian states. Pearson's correlation was used to describe the association between the Social Exclusion Index and the Human DeveIopment and the variations in mortality rates in each state.

RESULTS

Age-standardized mortality rates in Brazil were found to be stable (annual percent change [APC] = 0.3; 95% CI: -0.1 - 0.7) between 1994 and 2011. Considering the Brazilian states, significant decreases in mortality rates were found in Rio Grande do Sul, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Increases in mortality rates were most notable in the states of Maranhão (APC = 11.2; 95 %CI: 5.8 - 16.9), Piauí (APC = 9.8; 95% CI: 7.6 - 12.1) and Paraíba (APC = 9.3; 95% CI: 6.0 - 12.8). There was a statistically significant correlation between Social Exclusion Index and a change in female breast cancer mortality rates in the Brazilian states between 1990 and 2011 and between Human Development Index and mortality between 2001 and 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

Female breast cancer mortality rates are stable in Brazil. Reductions in these rates were found in the more developed states, possibly reflecting better healthcare.

摘要

背景

在欠发达地区,乳腺癌是女性癌症死亡的最常见原因。因此,本研究的目的是提供1990年至2011年间女性乳腺癌死亡率的时间趋势数据,并评估其与巴西存在的社会不平等之间的关联。

方法

从巴西国家卫生服务数据库获取1990 - 2011年期间的乳腺癌死亡率数据和常住人口估计数。使用1960年标准世界人口通过直接标准化计算年龄标准化死亡率(20 - 39岁、40 - 49岁、50 - 69岁和≥70岁)。趋势采用连接点回归模型和线性回归进行建模。社会排斥指数和人类发展指数用于对巴西的27个州进行分类。采用Pearson相关性来描述社会排斥指数与人类发展以及各州死亡率变化之间的关联。

结果

发现1994年至2011年间巴西的年龄标准化死亡率稳定(年变化百分比[APC] = 0.3;95%置信区间:-0.1 - 0.7)。就巴西各州而言,南里奥格兰德州、里约热内卢州和圣保罗州的死亡率显著下降。马拉尼昂州(APC = 11.2;95%置信区间:5.8 - 16.9)、皮奥伊州(APC = 9.8;95%置信区间:7.6 - 12.1)和帕拉伊巴州(APC = 9.3;95%置信区间:6.0 - 12.8)的死亡率上升最为显著。1990年至2011年间巴西各州社会排斥指数与女性乳腺癌死亡率变化之间以及2001年至2011年间人类发展指数与死亡率之间存在统计学显著相关性。

结论

巴西女性乳腺癌死亡率稳定。在较发达的州发现这些死亡率有所下降,这可能反映了更好的医疗保健。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ce09/4331144/9b468af21765/12889_2015_1445_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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