†State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, P.R. China.
‡State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100012, P.R. China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2015 Apr 21;49(8):4816-24. doi: 10.1021/es504529x. Epub 2015 Apr 3.
China's rapid economic growth has caused serious environmental problems, resulting in the implementation of two major measures-end-of-pipe facilities and the phasing out of backward capacity-to reduce China's industrial emissions as part of its 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010). It is important to determine whether China can meet the targets set forth in its 12th FYP (2011-2015) for industrial pollution reduction using these same solutions. In this paper, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to identify the contributions of the adopted measures-as well as other underlying factors-and to evaluate the feasibility of the reduction target in China's 12th FYP. Results show that the decrease in major industrial pollutant emissions achieved during the 11th FYP resulted from improved technological efficiency, including end-of-pipe abatement efficiency and pollutant generation intensity. The same measures adopted during China's 12th FYP can address the problem of industrial wastewater emissions resulting from economic growth when the economic structure is kept constant. But it may not fulfill its commitment of reducing industrial atmospheric pollutants emissions unless the economic structure and growth patterns are drastically reformed.
中国经济的快速增长导致了严重的环境问题，为了减少工业排放，中国实施了两大措施——末端治理设施和淘汰落后产能——作为其“十一五”规划（2006-2010 年）的一部分。重要的是，要确定中国是否能够利用这些相同的解决方案来实现其“十二五”规划（2011-2015 年）中工业污染减排的目标。在本文中，我们使用结构分解分析（SDA）来确定所采用措施的贡献——以及其他潜在因素——并评估中国“十二五”规划中减排目标的可行性。结果表明，“十一五”期间主要工业污染物排放量的减少是由于技术效率的提高，包括末端治理效率和污染物产生强度的提高。在“十二五”期间采用的相同措施可以解决经济增长导致的工业废水排放问题，前提是经济结构保持不变。但是，如果不彻底改革经济结构和增长模式，中国可能无法实现减少工业大气污染物排放的承诺。
