Li Ruifei, Zhang Jin, Krebs Peter
Institute of Urban and Industrial Water Management, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, 210098 Nanjing, China.
Commun Earth Environ. 2022;3(1):170. doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00500-y. Epub 2022 Aug 1.
International trade leads to a redistribution of pollutant emissions related to the production of goods and services and subsequently affects their severe health impacts. Here, we present a framework of emissions inventories, input-output model, numerical atmospheric chemistry model, and estimates of the global burden of disease. Specifically, we assess emissions and health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), a carcinogenic byproduct of production activities, and consider income, production, final sale, and consumption stages of the global supply chain between 2012 and 2015. We find that in 2015, global anthropogenic PAH emissions were 304 Gg (95% CI: 213421 Gg) and estimated related lifetime lung cancer deaths were 6.9 × 10 (95% CI: 1.8 × 101.5 × 10 deaths). The role of trade in driving the PAH-related health risks was greater than that in driving the emissions. Our findings indicate that international cooperation is needed to optimise the global supply chains and mitigate PAH emissions and health impacts.
国际贸易导致与商品和服务生产相关的污染物排放重新分配，进而影响其对健康造成的严重影响。在此，我们提出了一个由排放清单、投入产出模型、数值大气化学模型以及全球疾病负担估计组成的框架。具体而言，我们评估了多环芳烃（PAH）的排放及其对健康的影响，PAH是生产活动的一种致癌副产品，并考察了2012年至2015年全球供应链中的收入、生产、最终销售和消费阶段。我们发现，2015年全球人为PAH排放量为304Gg（95%置信区间：213421Gg），估计与之相关的终生肺癌死亡人数为6.9×10（95%置信区间：1.8×101.5×10例死亡）。贸易在推动与PAH相关的健康风险方面所起的作用大于其在推动排放方面所起的作用。我们的研究结果表明，需要开展国际合作以优化全球供应链，并减少PAH排放及其对健康的影响。
