Li Xue, Xu Yuan, Zhao Gang, Shi Chunli, Wang Zhong-Liang, Wang Yuqiu
Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, 300387, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2015 Apr;187(4):195. doi: 10.1007/s10661-015-4399-4. Epub 2015 Mar 20.
The eutrophication problem of drinking water source is directly related to the security of urban water supplication, and phosphorus has been proved as an important element to the water quality of the most northern hemisphere lakes and reservoirs. In the paper, 15-year monitoring records (1990∼2004) of Yuqiao Reservoir were used to model the changing trend of the total phosphorus (TP), analyze the uncertainty of nutrient parameters, and estimate the threshold of eutrophication management at a specific water quality goal by the application of Bayesian method through chemical material balance (CMB) model. The results revealed that Yuqiao Reservoir was a P-controlled water ecosystem, and the inner concentration of TP in the reservoir was significantly correlated with TP loading concentration, hydraulic retention coefficient, and bottom water dissolved oxygen concentration. In the case, the goal of water quality for TP in the reservoir was set to be 0.05 mg L(-1) (the third level of national surface water standard for reservoirs according to GB3838-2002), management measures could be taken to improve water quality in reservoir through controlling the highest inflow phosphorus concentration (0.15∼0.21 mg L(-1)) and the lowest DO concentration (3.76∼5.59 mg L(-1)) to the threshold. Inverse method was applied to evaluate the joint manage measures, and the results revealed that it was a valuable measure to avoid eutrophication by controlling lowest dissolved oxygen concentration and adjusting the inflow and outflow of reservoir.
饮用水源地富营养化问题直接关系到城市供水安全，磷已被证明是北半球大多数湖泊和水库水质的重要因素。本文利用于桥水库15年（1990 - 2004年）的监测记录，通过化学物质平衡（CMB）模型应用贝叶斯方法模拟总磷（TP）变化趋势，分析营养参数不确定性，并在特定水质目标下估算富营养化管理阈值。结果表明，于桥水库是一个受磷控制的水生态系统，水库内总磷浓度与总磷负荷浓度、水力停留系数和底层水溶解氧浓度显著相关。在此情况下，若将水库总磷水质目标设定为0.05 mg·L⁻¹（根据GB3838 - 2002，水库国家地表水标准的三级），可通过将最高入流磷浓度（0.15～0.21 mg·L⁻¹）和最低溶解氧浓度（3.76～5.59 mg·L⁻¹）控制在阈值内来采取管理措施改善水库水质。采用反演方法评估联合管理措施，结果表明通过控制最低溶解氧浓度和调节水库进出流来避免富营养化是一项有价值的措施。
