Van Boeckel Thomas P, Brower Charles, Gilbert Marius, Grenfell Bryan T, Levin Simon A, Robinson Timothy P, Teillant Aude, Laxminarayan Ramanan
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, Washington, DC 20036;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 May 5;112(18):5649-54. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1503141112. Epub 2015 Mar 19.
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.
全球范围内,供人类食用的动物蛋白需求正以前所未有的速度增长。现代动物生产方式常常使用抗菌药物,这可能会增加细菌产生耐药性的选择压力。尽管抗菌药物耐药性可能带来重大后果,但目前尚无对全球牲畜抗菌药物消费量的定量衡量。我们通过使用贝叶斯统计模型来填补这一空白,该模型结合了牲畜密度地图、肉类产品需求的经济预测以及高收入国家当前的抗菌药物消费估计,以绘制2010年和2030年食用动物的抗菌药物使用情况。我们估计,每生产一公斤动物,牛、鸡和猪的全球抗菌药物年均消费量分别为45毫克·千克⁻¹、148毫克·千克⁻¹和172毫克·千克⁻¹。从这个基线开始,我们估计在2010年至2030年期间,全球抗菌药物消费量将增长67%,从63151±1560吨增至105596±3605吨。2010年至2030年期间,牲畜抗菌药物消费量增长的三分之一可归因于中等收入国家生产方式的转变,在这些国家,粗放型养殖系统将被大规模集约化养殖 operations 取代,后者常规使用亚治疗剂量的抗菌药物。对于巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非,抗菌药物消费量的增长将达到99%,高达该组国家预计人口增长的七倍。需要更好地了解兽医抗菌药物消费不受控制地增长所带来的后果,以评估其对动物和人类健康的潜在影响。