Tiseo Katie, Huber Laura, Gilbert Marius, Robinson Timothy P, Van Boeckel Thomas P
Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland.
Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Brussels, Belgium.
Antibiotics (Basel). 2020 Dec 17;9(12):918. doi: 10.3390/antibiotics9120918.
Demand for animal protein is rising globally and has been facilitated by the expansion of intensive farming. However, intensive animal production relies on the regular use of antimicrobials to maintain health and productivity on farms. The routine use of antimicrobials fuels the development of antimicrobial resistance, a growing threat for the health of humans and animals. Monitoring global trends in antimicrobial use is essential to track progress associated with antimicrobial stewardship efforts across regions. We collected antimicrobial sales data for chicken, cattle, and pig systems in 41 countries in 2017 and projected global antimicrobial consumption from 2017 to 2030. We used multivariate regression models and estimated global antimicrobial sales in 2017 at 93,309 tonnes (95% CI: 64,443, 149,886). Globally, sales are expected to rise by 11.5% in 2030 to 104,079 tonnes (95% CI: 69,062, 172,711). All continents are expected to increase their antimicrobial use. Our results show lower global antimicrobial sales in 2030 compared to previous estimates, owing to recent reports of decrease in antimicrobial use, in particular in China, the world's largest consumer. Countries exporting a large proportion of their production are more likely to report their antimicrobial sales data than countries with small export markets.
全球对动物蛋白的需求正在上升，集约化养殖的扩张推动了这一需求。然而，集约化动物生产依赖于定期使用抗菌药物来维持农场的健康和生产力。抗菌药物的常规使用助长了抗菌药物耐药性的发展，这对人类和动物的健康构成了日益严重的威胁。监测全球抗菌药物使用趋势对于跟踪各地区抗菌药物管理工作的进展至关重要。我们收集了2017年41个国家鸡、牛和猪养殖系统的抗菌药物销售数据，并预测了2017年至2030年全球抗菌药物消费量。我们使用多元回归模型，估计2017年全球抗菌药物销售额为93309吨（95%置信区间：64443，149886）。全球范围内，预计到2030年销售额将增长11.5%，达到104079吨（95%置信区间：69062，172711）。预计各大洲的抗菌药物使用量都会增加。我们的结果显示，与之前的估计相比，2030年全球抗菌药物销售额有所下降，这是由于最近有报道称抗菌药物使用量有所减少，尤其是在全球最大的消费国中国。与出口市场较小的国家相比，出口其大部分产品的国家更有可能报告其抗菌药物销售数据。
