Caminade Cyril, van Dijk Jan, Baylis Matthew, Williams Diana
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool.
Geospat Health. 2015 Mar 19;9(2):301-8. doi: 10.4081/gh.2015.352.
Fasciola hepatica is a parasitic worm responsible for fasciolosis in grazed ruminants in Europe. The free-living stages of this parasite are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture, as are the intermediate snail hosts the parasite depends on for its life-cycle. We used a climate-driven disease model in order to assess the impact of recent and potential future climate changes on the incidence of fasciolosis and to estimate the related uncertainties at the scale of the European landmass. The current climate appears to be highly suitable for fasciolosis throughout the European Union with the exception of some parts of the Mediterranean region. Simulated climatic suitability for fasciolosis significantly increased during the 2000s in central and northwestern Europe, which is consistent with an observed increased in ruminant infections. The simulation showed that recent trends are likely to continue in the future with the estimated pattern of climate change for northern Europe, possibly extending the season suitable for development of the parasite in the environment by up to four months. For southern Europe, the simulated burden of disease may be lower, but the projected climate change will increase the risk during the winter months, since the simulated changes in temperature and moisture support the development of the free-living and intra-molluscan stages between November and March. In the event of predicted climate change, F. hepatica will present a serious risk to the health, welfare and productivity of all ruminant livestock. Improved, bespoke control programmes, both at farm and region levels, will then become imperative if problems, such as resistance of the parasite associated with increased drug use, are to be mitigated.
肝片吸虫是一种寄生性蠕虫，可导致欧洲放牧反刍动物感染肝片吸虫病。这种寄生虫的自由生活阶段对温度和土壤湿度敏感，其生命周期所依赖的中间宿主蜗牛也是如此。我们使用了一个气候驱动的疾病模型，以评估近期和未来潜在气候变化对肝片吸虫病发病率的影响，并估计欧洲大陆范围内的相关不确定性。除地中海地区的一些部分外，目前的气候似乎非常适合整个欧盟范围内的肝片吸虫病传播。在21世纪，中欧和西北欧模拟的肝片吸虫病气候适宜性显著增加，这与反刍动物感染率上升的观察结果一致。模拟结果表明，随着北欧气候变化的估计模式，近期趋势可能会在未来持续，可能将适合寄生虫在环境中发育的季节延长多达四个月。对于南欧来说，模拟的疾病负担可能较低，但预计的气候变化将增加冬季的风险，因为模拟的温度和湿度变化有利于11月至次年3月期间自由生活阶段和软体动物体内阶段的发育。如果发生预测的气候变化，肝片吸虫将对所有反刍动物的健康、福利和生产力构成严重风险。如果要缓解诸如因药物使用增加导致寄生虫产生抗药性等问题，那么在农场和地区层面改进定制的控制计划将变得势在必行。
