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公司的死亡率。

The mortality of companies.

作者信息

Daepp Madeleine I G, Hamilton Marcus J, West Geoffrey B, Bettencourt Luís M A

机构信息

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA Integrated Studies in Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

出版信息

J R Soc Interface. 2015 May 6;12(106). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0120.

Abstract

The firm is a fundamental economic unit of contemporary human societies. Studies on the general quantitative and statistical character of firms have produced mixed results regarding their lifespans and mortality. We examine a comprehensive database of more than 25 000 publicly traded North American companies, from 1950 to 2009, to derive the statistics of firm lifespans. Based on detailed survival analysis, we show that the mortality of publicly traded companies manifests an approximately constant hazard rate over long periods of observation. This regularity indicates that mortality rates are independent of a company's age. We show that the typical half-life of a publicly traded company is about a decade, regardless of business sector. Our results shed new light on the dynamics of births and deaths of publicly traded companies and identify some of the necessary ingredients of a general theory of firms.

摘要

企业是当代人类社会的基本经济单位。关于企业寿命和死亡率的一般定量和统计特征的研究,在这方面得出了好坏参半的结果。我们研究了一个涵盖1950年至2009年期间25000多家北美上市公司的综合数据库,以得出企业寿命的统计数据。基于详细的生存分析,我们表明,在长时间的观察中,上市公司的死亡率呈现出近似恒定的风险率。这种规律性表明死亡率与公司年龄无关。我们表明,无论商业部门如何,上市公司的典型半衰期约为十年。我们的研究结果为上市公司的生死动态提供了新的见解,并确定了企业一般理论的一些必要要素。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7b16/4424689/6a4dc93f1851/rsif20150120-g1.jpg

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