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把握工作残疾研究中的复杂性:系统动力学建模方法的应用

Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

作者信息

Jetha Arif, Pransky Glenn, Hettinger Lawrence J

机构信息

a Center for Disability Research and.

b Center for Behavioral Sciences, Liberty Mutual Research Institute for Safety , Hopkinton , MA , USA , and.

出版信息

Disabil Rehabil. 2016;38(2):189-94. doi: 10.3109/09638288.2015.1031291. Epub 2015 Apr 13.

DOI:10.3109/09638288.2015.1031291
PMID:25864874
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models.

METHOD

System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention.

DISCUSSION

SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered.

IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION

Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

摘要

背景

工作残疾(WD)具有多变且偶尔不理想的结果。WD结果的潜在决定因素包括健康、个人、组织和监管因素之间动态关系的模式,这些模式难以描述,且当代WD模型对其呈现不足。

方法

系统动力学建模(SDM)方法应用社会技术系统思维视角,将WD系统视为由一系列通过反馈关系相连的影响因素组成。SDM通过揭示因果反馈关系并概念化动态系统行为,有可能克服当代WD模型的局限性。它采用基于利益相关者的协作式模型构建方法,对整个系统进行可视化描述。SDM还能使研究人员进行动态模拟,以提供政策和项目干预可能产生的预期或意外结果的证据。

讨论

SDM可能通过更深入了解WD系统的结构和动态,同时帮助理解其内在复杂性,推动康复研究。与数据可用性、确定有效性以及模型构建所需的大量时间和技术技能要求相关的挑战,可能会限制SDM在该领域的应用,应予以考虑。

对康复的启示

当代工作残疾(WD)模型对与WD过程相关的复杂性洞察有限。系统动力学建模(SDM)有可能通过基于利益相关者的方法捕捉复杂性,该方法生成一个由多个反馈回路组成的模拟模型。SDM可能使WD研究人员和从业者理解WD系统的整体结构和行为,并为制定更好的策略以管理简单和复杂的WD案例提供信息。

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