Assink Mark, van der Put Claudia E, Oort Frans J, Stams Geert Jan J M
Research Institute of Child Development and Education, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 127, 1018 WS, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
BMC Psychiatry. 2015 Mar 4;15:36. doi: 10.1186/s12888-015-0421-1.
In The Netherlands, police officers not only come into contact with juvenile offenders, but also with a large number of juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect (i.e., juvenile non-offenders). Until now, no valid and reliable instrument was available that can be used by Dutch police officers for estimating the risk for future care needs of juvenile non-offenders. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Care Needs Assessment Tool for Non-Offenders (Y-ACNAT-NO) was developed for predicting the risk for future care needs that consisted of (1) a future supervision order as imposed by a juvenile court judge and (2) future worrisome incidents involving child abuse, domestic violence/strife, and/or sexual offensive behavior at the juvenile's living address (i.e., problems in the child-rearing environment).
Police records of 3,200 juveniles were retrieved from the Dutch police registration system after which the sample was randomly split in a construction (n = 1,549) and validation sample (n = 1,651). The Y-ACNAT-NO was developed by performing an Exhaustive CHAID analysis using the construction sample. The predictive validity of the instrument was examined in the validation sample by calculating several performance indicators that assess discrimination and calibration.
The CHAID output yielded an instrument that consisted of six variables and eleven different risk groups. The risk for future care needs ranged from 0.06 in the lowest risk group to 0.83 in the highest risk group. The AUC value in the validation sample was .764 (95% CI [.743, .784]) and Sander's calibration score indicated an average assessment error of 3.74% in risk estimates per risk category.
The Y-ACNAT-NO is the first instrument that can be used by Dutch police officers for estimating the risk for future care needs of juvenile non-offenders. The predictive validity of the Y-ACNAT-NO in terms of discrimination and calibration was sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument when a decision is needed about referring a juvenile for further assessment of care needs.
在荷兰，警察不仅会接触到少年犯罪者，还会接触到大量虽卷入刑事犯罪但并非嫌疑人身份的青少年（即未成年非犯罪者）。到目前为止，荷兰警察没有可用的有效且可靠的工具来评估未成年非犯罪者未来护理需求的风险。在本研究中，开发了非犯罪者青少年精算护理需求评估工具（Y - ACNAT - NO），用于预测未来护理需求的风险，该风险包括：（1）少年法庭法官下达的未来监管令；（2）未来在青少年居住地址发生的涉及虐待儿童、家庭暴力/冲突和/或性侵犯行为的令人担忧的事件（即育儿环境中的问题）。
从荷兰警方登记系统中检索了3200名青少年的警方记录，然后将样本随机分为构建样本（n = 1549）和验证样本（n = 1651）。通过对构建样本进行详尽的CHAID分析来开发Y - ACNAT - NO。通过计算评估区分度和校准度的几个性能指标，在验证样本中检验该工具的预测效度。
CHAID分析结果产生了一个由六个变量和十一个不同风险组组成的工具。未来护理需求的风险范围从最低风险组的0.06到最高风险组的0.83。验证样本中的AUC值为0.764（95%可信区间[0.743, 0.784]），桑德校准分数表明每个风险类别的风险估计平均评估误差为3.74%。
Y - ACNAT - NO是荷兰警察可用于评估未成年非犯罪者未来护理需求风险的首个工具。Y - ACNAT - NO在区分度和校准度方面的预测效度足以证明在需要决定是否将青少年转介进行进一步护理需求评估时，可将其用作初始筛查工具。
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