Jones Natalie J, Brown Shelley L, Robinson David, Frey Deanna
Orbis Partners.
Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Law Hum Behav. 2016 Apr;40(2):182-94. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000170. Epub 2016 Jan 11.
The primary purpose of this study is to introduce the Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument (YASI; Orbis Partners, 2000), which is a comprehensive assessment protocol gauging a range of risks, needs, and strengths associated with criminal conduct in juvenile populations. Applied to a sample of 464 juvenile offenders bound by community supervision in Alberta, Canada, the Pre-Screen version of the instrument achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting both general and violent offenses over an 18-month follow-up period (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = .79). No significant differences in overall predictive validity were found across demographic groups, save for the relatively lower level of accuracy achieved in predicting general reoffending across the subsample of girls (AUC = .68). With regard to strengths, a buffering effect was identified whereby high-risk cases with higher levels of strength had superior outcomes compared to their lower strength counterparts. Results suggest that it is advisable to consider the quantitative inclusion of strength-based items in the assessment of juvenile risk.
本研究的主要目的是介绍青少年评估与筛查工具（YASI；奥比斯伙伴组织，2000年），这是一种全面的评估方案，用于衡量与青少年犯罪行为相关的一系列风险、需求和优势。该工具的预筛查版本应用于加拿大艾伯塔省受社区监管的464名青少年罪犯样本，在18个月的随访期内，在预测一般犯罪和暴力犯罪方面都达到了很高的准确率（曲线下面积[AUC]=0.79）。除了在预测女孩子样本中的一般再犯罪方面准确率相对较低（AUC=0.68）外，各人口群体在总体预测效度上没有发现显著差异。关于优势，发现了一种缓冲效应，即与优势水平较低的高风险案例相比，优势水平较高的高风险案例有更好的结果。结果表明，在评估青少年风险时，考虑定量纳入基于优势的项目是可取的。
